TREND MODELS FOR FORECASTING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Keywords:
Keywords: time series, forecasting, linear trend model, econometrics, least squares method, macroeconomic dynamics, industry size, mathematical modeling.Abstract
Abstract: This scientific article discusses mathematical methods for using time series and trend models to predict the future state of economic indicators. The relevance of the study is that state and business structures cannot forecast the dynamics of economic growth without accurate mathematical algorithms when making strategic decisions. To solve the problem, a linear trend equation based on the method of least squares (LKS) was used. In the practical analysis section, the dynamics of the volume of industrial production in Uzbekistan over the past 6 years was studied and a precise mathematical forecast was calculated for the future period. The conclusions of the study show that smoothing fluctuations and building linear trend models are the most reliable means of identifying long-term patterns.
