O'ZBEKISTONDA PUL-KREDIT SIYOSATINI AMALGA OSHIRISHDAN KO'ZLANGAN MAQSADLAR: 2026 YIL I CHORAK TAHLILI

Abstract

Ushbu maqolada O'zbekiston Respublikasi Markaziy bankining pul-kredit siyosatini amalga oshirishdan ko'zlagan asosiy maqsadlari 2026 yil I chorak (yanvar-mart) makroiqtisodiy ko'rsatkichlari asosida ilmiy-tahliliy jihatdan o'rganilgan. Tadqiqotda inflyatsion targeting rejimi, asosiy stavka boshqaruvi, pul bozorini tartibga solish va valyuta kursini barqarorlashtirish maqsadlarining bajarilishi bahоlangan. 2026 yil I chorakda inflyatsiyaning 7.1 foizgacha pasayishi, UZONIA stavkasining asosiy stavkaga yaqin 13.6–13.8 foiz oralig'ida ushlab turilishi va iqtisodiy o'sishning 8.7 foizga yetishi kabi ijobiy tendensiyalar qayd etilgan. Shu bilan birga, bazaviy inflyatsiyaning fevralda 6.3 foizga ko'tarilishi va inflyatsion kutilmalarning hali yuqori (11–11.5%) saqlanib qolishi asosiy muammo sifatida tahlil qilingan. Maqola yakunida pul-kredit siyosatining samaradorligini oshirish bo'yicha ilmiy asoslangan takliflar bayon etilgan.

This article provides a scientific analysis of the key objectives of the monetary policy pursued by the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan, based on macroeconomic indicators for the first quarter of 2026 (January–March). The study evaluates the implementation of inflation targeting, key rate management, money market regulation, and exchange rate stabilization goals. Positive trends recorded in Q1 2026 include inflation declining to 7.1%, the UZONIA rate held close to the key rate at 13.6–13.8%, and economic growth reaching 8.7%. At the same time, the rise in core inflation to 6.3% in February and persistently high inflation expectations (11–11.5%) are analyzed as the primary challenges. The article concludes with evidence-based recommendations for enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy.