PUBLIC EXTERNAL DEBT AND MACROECONOMIC STABILITY IN UZBEKISTAN: A REVIEW AND DESCRIPTIVE ANALYSIS
Keywords:
Keywords: Public debt, Uzbekistan, GDP, World Bank, PPG, Inflation, Green Bonds, State-Owned Enterprises.Abstract
Abstract: This article examines the evolution of public external debt in the
Republic of Uzbekistan from 2015 to 2024, analyzing its pivotal role in the country's
transition from an autarkic, state-led model to an open market economy. The study
posits that while the nominal stock of public debt surged following the 2017 exchange
rate liberalization and subsequent investment boom, the debt-to-GDP ratio has
stabilized within sustainable thresholds due to robust nominal GDP growth and prudent
fiscal management (IMF, 2025). Through a descriptive analysis of the evolving
institutional framework, the research highlights the significance of the 2023 Law on
State Debt and the maintenance of substantial international reserves in mitigating
solvency risks (Ministry of Justice, 2023). However, the analysis also identifies
persistent structural vulnerabilities, specifically the high degree of foreign currency
denomination and contingent liabilities arising from State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs).
Ultimately, the research concludes that public debt served as a critical macroeconomic
stabilizer during external shocks, positioning Uzbekistan for a phase of fiscal
consolidation and deeper domestic market development.
References
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