TRADE OPENNESS AND LONG-TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM UZBEKISTAN AND KAZAKHSTAN
Keywords:
Kеywоrds: trade openness; economic growth; Uzbekistan; Kazakhstan; ARDL; VECM; WTO accession; foreign direct investment.Abstract
Abstract. This article examines how trade openness relates to long-term
economic growth in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, two landlocked economies that have
pursued outward-oriented reforms in different sequences and at different speeds. Trade
openness is commonly measured as the sum of exports and imports relative to GDP
and is often viewed as a channel for productivity gains through competition,
technology diffusion, and access to larger markets. Yet, openness can also transmit
external shocks, deepen import dependence, and amplify commodity cycles—
especially when institutions, logistics, and industrial upgrading lag behind. Using
recent cross-country indicators and two country-focused empirical studies, the paper
synthesizes the evidence on whether openness has supported growth in these
economies and why results may differ across time horizons.
References
RЕFЕRЕNСЕS
1. The World Bank. World Bank Data (WDI) and WITS Country Snapshots for
Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan: GDP growth (annual %), exports and imports of
goods and services (% of GDP), trade balance indicators. Electronic resource.
Access mode: https://data.worldbank.org/country/uzbekistan ;
https://data.worldbank.org/country/kazakhstan ;
https://wits.worldbank.org/countrysnapshot/en/UZB ;
https://wits.worldbank.org/CountrySnapshot/en/KAZ (accessed: 06.02.2026).
2. World Trade Organization (WTO). Kazakhstan joins the WTO as 162nd member.
News item, 30 November 2015. Electronic resource. Access mode:
https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news15_e/acc_kaz_30nov15_e.htm
(accessed: 06.02.2026).
3. World Trade Organization (WTO). Uzbekistan advances WTO accession
negotiations, reaffirms commitment to conclude by 2026. News item, 06 December
2024. Electronic resource. Access mode:
https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news24_e/acc_06dec24_e.htm (accessed:
06.02.2026).
4. Akhter S., Mir M. A., Megits N. The linkage between international trade and
economic growth in Kazakhstan // Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian
Research. 2022. Vol. 9, No. 6. DOI: 10.15549/jeecar.v9i6.1019. (Full text via
ResearchGate).
5. Ul Haq I., Golestan Z. Economic Growth, FDI and Trade Openness: Causality
Analysis for Uzbekistan (1997–2023). 2025. Electronic resource (full text via
ResearchGate; publisher site indicated in the text: www.sci-p.uz). Accessed:
06.02.2026.
