O‘ZBEKISTONDA MAKROIQTISODIY BEQARORLIK OMILLARI VA ULARNI ERTA OGOHLANTIRISH INDIKATORLARI TIZIMINI ISHLAB CHIQISH
Keywords:
This article analyzes the main factors that cause macroeconomic instability in the economy of Uzbekistan and proposes a system of early warning indicators to determine them in advance. The study provides a “traffic light” (green yellow-red) model as well as a composite risk Index development approach based on indicators such as inflation, credit growth, public debt, the external sector, exchange rate and reserves. The article is practice-oriented and offers a set of indicators and a monitoring algorithm suitable for the conditions of Uzbekistan.Abstract
Ushbu maqolada O‘zbekiston iqtisodiyotida makroiqtisodiy
beqarorlikni yuzaga keltiruvchi asosiy omillar tahlil qilinadi va ularni oldindan
aniqlash uchun erta ogohlantirish indikatorlari tizimi taklif etiladi. Tadqiqotda
inflyatsiya, kredit o‘sishi, davlat qarzi, tashqi sektor, valyuta kursi va zaxiralar kabi
ko‘rsatkichlar asosida “svetofor” (yashil-sariq-qizil) modeli hamda kompozit risk
indeksi ishlab chiqish yondashuvi berilgan. Maqola amaliyotga yo‘naltirilgan bo‘lib,
O‘zbekiston sharoitiga mos indikatorlar to‘plami va monitoring algoritmini taklif
qiladi.
References
1. IMF, 2025 Article IV Consultation (Uzbekistan) — o‘sish, inflyatsiya, tashqi va
fiskal ko‘rsatkichlar.
2. O‘zbekiston Respublikasi Markaziy banki — inflyatsiya dinamikasi, monetar
siyosat press-relizlari, rezervlar statistikasi.
3. O‘zbekiston hukumat portali (davlat qarzi bo‘yicha 2025 yil choraklik
ko‘rsatkichlar).
4. O‘zbekiston Markaziy banki — moliyaviy barqarorlik va makroprudensial
instrumentlar bo‘limi.
